I am no expert on foreign policy and I do not have a degree in world history. However, I have been dead on so far regarding what Putin would do in the Ukraine.
I have heard on several news stations several different theories on what is going to happen and what the United States’ role should be. It has ranged from complete isolationism to weak sanctions.
One thing is clear, few people understand Putin and the worst part…he knows it. While President Obama and John Kerry are living in some warped liberal fantasyland, Putin is the new bully on campus and no one is strong enough to stop him.
Why? No one has the will or brains to do so. It has nothing to do with military strength. The U.S. is still hands down the strongest country in the world. That is an undeniable fact, but right now we look like a house cat and Putin looks like a Tiger.
Let me see if I can break down why and how I think this will play out.
1) Few, if any, European countries will join to impose any “real” sanctions on Putin. Remember, not all sanctions are created equal. Just because they call something a “sanction” does not mean it is or will cause any damage. Why? Because Russia controls most of the oil that many of the European countries depend on, including Germany, arguably Europe’s strongest country.
2) The Crimean Parliament has voted to join Russia, though they have been given a 10 day period to consider it. That is mostly symbolic. The vote passed unanimously. Why? This allows Putin to claim the democratic process won and they want to join Russia. Effectively eliminating any Western involvement in Crimea. Make no mistake, this was Russian backed and was a brilliant move.
3) President Obama has sent a battleship and several F-16’s to aid the Polish and NATO. This is a passable start, but it is still very weak. Putin knows Obama or NATO will NOT use military force. If Obama did, he would face severe backlash in the U.S. as we are weary of war. Not to mention, the rest of NATO is composed of other countries and none will risk angering Putin.
4) Prediction: Putin will make sure Crimea stays under his control and will allow this to simmer down. Once it does, he will begin to move into other parts of the Ukraine. How will he do this? Through withholding aid, oil, and subterfuge. He will use coercion and Kieve will eventually vote to join Russia.
5) This is all part of Putin’s dream to resurrect the Soviet Union. For some weird reason, Liberals cannot understand this. Putin is playing Chess, while we are playing checkers. Obama’s weakness has created the perfect environment for Putin to flex his muscles (No pun intended).
For anyone who is still skeptical, let’s look at some facts:
– Putin has only officially been President since 2012.
– Putin has released political prisoners (good will with the international community).
– He has cracked down on gays (88% of Russians oppose homosexuality), his aim is to increase Russian pride;
– Stopped adoption of Russian children from outsiders, also wants to increase population;
– Rebuilding his military and old soviet bases;
– Invaded Georgia (the country, not the state);
– Humiliated Obama and positioned himself as the main power broker in the Middle East.
Mark my words, more is coming. Don’t take my word for it, pay attention and you will see the pattern. Read cold war history and you will become quite concerned with how Putin is using old KGB and Soviet Union tactics.
Unfortunately, the difference is that Putin believes in his country. Can we say the same for Obama?